What Is the EUR/USD Doing Today
EUR/USD — affectionately called "fiber" by traders — is the single most-traded pair in the entire forex market, with around 1.5 trillion dollars changing hands every day. That liquidity makes it the cleanest pair to trade fundamentals on: spreads are razor-thin, technicals respect themselves, and both sides of the pair are well-covered by every major news source. The bias score in the card above is calculated by subtracting the live USD sentiment from the live EUR sentiment.
On a typical day EUR/USD direction comes down to one question: which central bank — the Fed or the ECB — is sounding more hawkish right now? Whichever side is closer to a rate cut sees its currency weaken; whichever side is holding firmer sees its currency strengthen. That divergence is the engine of every multi-week EUR/USD trend.
EUR/USD Pair Profile
- Typical spread: 0.1–0.5 pips on most retail brokers, the tightest in the entire forex market
- Best trading hours: 7:00am–11:00am London (the London-NY overlap from 1pm–4pm London is the highest-volume window of the day)
- Volatility profile: Moderate — typically 60–90 pips average daily range, expanding to 150–200 pips on FOMC and NFP days
- Pip value (per 1.0 lot): ~$10 per pip on a standard 1.0 lot (100,000 units)
- Correlated pairs: GBP/USD (positive ~0.85), EUR/JPY (positive ~0.6), DXY index (negative ~0.95)
What Moves the EUR/USD
EUR/USD is driven by both the EUR side and the USD side. Here's what to watch on each:
Euro (EUR) side
- ECB rate decisions and Lagarde's press conference language
- Eurozone CPI flash inflation (released last days of each month)
- Germany IFO and ZEW economic sentiment surveys
- French, Italian and Spanish political headlines
- ECB Council member speeches between meetings
US Dollar (USD) side
- Fed (FOMC) rate decisions and Powell press conferences
- NFP non-farm payrolls (first Friday of the month)
- US CPI inflation print (around the 12th of each month)
- PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
- US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year and 10-year