What Is the USD/JPY Doing Today
USD/JPY is the third most-traded currency pair in the world and the most-traded JPY pair by far. What makes USD/JPY unique among the majors is how cleanly it tracks US Treasury yields — particularly the 10-year. When US yields rise, USD/JPY rises with them, often tick-for-tick. This is because the carry trade incentive between low-yielding yen and higher-yielding dollars depends entirely on that yield differential.
USD/JPY also has a second personality: safe-haven flows. When global equities crash and risk-off panic takes hold, traders unwind their carry trades by selling dollars and buying back yen, which can cause USD/JPY to drop 200+ pips in a single session even when US yields haven't changed. Trading USD/JPY successfully means watching both the US yield curve and the global risk mood.
USD/JPY Pair Profile
- Typical spread: 0.3–0.8 pips at most retail brokers
- Best trading hours: 12am–4am London for Tokyo session JPY data, 1pm-5pm London for US data and yield-driven moves
- Volatility profile: High — typically 70–120 pips average daily range, expanding to 200+ pips on BoJ days or risk-off events
- Pip value (per 1.0 lot): ~$6.50 per pip on a standard 1.0 lot (varies with USD/JPY level — pip value = $10 ÷ USDJPY rate × 100)
- Correlated pairs: US 10-year Treasury yield (very strong positive ~0.85), Nikkei 225 (positive ~0.6), VIX (negative)
What Moves the USD/JPY
USD/JPY reacts to two distinct news streams. Watch both:
US Dollar (USD) side
- Fed (FOMC) rate decisions and Powell press conferences
- NFP non-farm payrolls (first Friday of the month)
- US CPI inflation print (around the 12th of each month)
- PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
- US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year and 10-year
Japanese Yen (JPY) side
- Bank of Japan policy meetings and Yield Curve Control adjustments
- US 10-year Treasury yield (the single biggest JPY driver via carry)
- Japanese CPI and the BoJ's 2% target progress
- Ministry of Finance intervention threats and actual interventions
- Risk-on/risk-off mood (JPY is a major safe-haven currency)