📅 Thu, 13 Aug 2026
Home · Daily Insights · Thu, 13 Aug 2026
London Session • USD Analysis

USD Rallies on US CPI Ease to 3.4% & RBNZ Inflation Drop

London is opening — here is the forex sentiment setup heading into the European session. US Dollar (USD) leads forex sentiment today with a strong bullish reading. Here is what drove the move and what to watch next.

US Dollar, USD, 72/100 — Bullish — extends gains as softer-than-expected inflation data paradoxically reinforces greenback strength across major pairs.

Learn why US CPI cooling to 3.4% is fuelling dollar dominance rather than triggering a retreat, and which currency pair offers the sharpest risk/reward in today's session.

What Happened

The US Dollar surged to a 72/100 bullish sentiment score on Thursday as a softer inflation print unexpectedly bolstered greenback momentum. US CPI slowed to 3.4% with core inflation easing to 2.5%, a reading that might ordinarily trigger dollar weakness on reduced Fed hike bets. Instead, the data proved supportive: the moderation in price pressures convinced markets that the Federal Reserve retains policy flexibility, underpinning confidence in the world's reserve currency and its outlook relative to peers facing their own growth headwinds.

Gold tumbled below $4,400 on firm USD and Fed rate expectations, while silver wobbled around $65.40 as hawkish Fed bets eased, signalling that traders interpreted the softer inflation as a goldilocks scenario—not too hot to reignite aggressive tightening, not too cold to trigger emergency easing. The Indian Rupee opened marginally lower and the Swiss Franc slid to a two-week low, both casualties of this aggressive dollar bid that persisted despite the tamer headline numbers. This paradox—soft inflation yet stronger greenback—reflects the forex market's confidence that the US economy remains on a sustainable disinflation path without the need for dramatic policy reversals.

“Swiss Franc slides to two-week low as oil-driven Fed hike bets boost USD”— FXStreet · 13 Aug 2026

Today's news timeline

Market Reaction

The broader currency complex fractured sharply along rate-expectation lines. NZD/USD emerged as the session's widest sentiment gap: the New Zealand Dollar plummeted to 32/100 bearish after the Reserve Bank's two-year inflation expectations cooled to 2.34% QoQ in Q3 2026, evaporating any case for RBNZ rate hikes and leaving the Kiwi defenceless against a resurgent greenback. Across the major pairs, the Australian Dollar struggled to extend its rally above 0.7100, sterling traded below 1.3500 ahead of subdued UK GDP forecasts, and the euro flatlined below 1.1550 despite soft US CPI—unable to capitalise on what should have been a tailwind.

The Japanese Yen held steady near 159.50 on intervention risks and a dimming Fed tightening narrative that still kept the Bank of Japan's case alive, settling at 55/100 neutral. Canadian Dollar drifted without meaningful catalysts beyond the broader USD bid, while the currency pair EUR/CHF pulled back from session highs to 0.9364, confirming that euro weakness extended across multiple baskets even as safe-haven demand typically buttressed the franc.

What's Driving the Move

Three key threads run through the bullish US Dollar story:

  1. US CPI deceleration to 3.4% headline and 2.5% core inflation removed recession fears while preserving Fed credibility, allowing markets to price a patient rather than panicked monetary stance.
  2. RBNZ two-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.34% QoQ in Q3 2026, dismantling NZD/USD bulls and creating a 40-point sentiment differential between the two currencies.
  3. Oil-driven Fed rate expectations combined with softer global inflation prints from Norges Bank reinforced a narrative of durable US policy flexibility, underpinning greenback currency strength against commodity-linked and rate-sensitive peers.
“Swiss Franc slides to two-week low as oil-driven Fed hike bets boost USD”— FXStreet · 06:00 UTC

What to Watch Next

📈 Bull case for the move
USD bulls will eye NZD/USD's breakdown as a potential springboard for deeper declines if the pair closes below key technical support, validating the 40-point sentiment gap and triggering fresh positioning. Jackson Hole next week offers the next major catalyst; any Fed speaker comments hinting at a patient stance without pre-committing to cuts would cement the 'soft landing' narrative and extend the dollar's rally against reopening-vulnerable currencies like NZD and commodity bloc names.
📉 Risk to the view
A sharp reversal would require either a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve over the coming 48 hours—contradicting today's dovish inflation interpretation—or a risk-on shock that drains safe-haven flows and reopens rate differentials in favour of higher-yielding peers like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Should US equity indices stumble or Middle East tensions escalate, risk sentiment could flip, forcing a repricing of the Fed's optionality and capping the greenback's upside.

Asia opens in hours with fresh flows likely to test USD support levels; traders should monitor NZD/USD closely for any rebound attempts that could signal a near-term consolidation before the next directional push.

📊 Bias snapshot at the time of writing
USD
72
▲ Bull
EUR
42
▼ Bear
GBP
45
▼ Bear
JPY
55
— Neut
AUD
38
▼ Bear
CAD
50
— Neut
CHF
38
▼ Bear
NZD
32
▼ Bear
Catch every session wrap as it drops. Bookmark /insight/ or subscribe to our RSS feed for fresh forex sentiment analysis 3 times a day — Asia, London and New York sessions.

How this briefing was written: AI-drafted from real forex news headlines scanned every 3 hours by FXNewsBias, then auto-published on a fixed session schedule. Sentiment scores reflect news flow only — not technical signals or price action. This is information, not financial advice. Always cross-check with your own analysis before trading.